Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range for parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

A dry line is developing across the middle of the state while a cold front will move through far West Texas, the Panhandle, the Permian Basin, the South Plains and portions of North Central and South Central Texas. Very strong winds will occur across the western and northern portions of the state as the front moves through, which will generate and transport intense blowing dust from New Mexico and the northern portion of Mexico across these regions of Texas and likely stay suspended long enough to filter over portions of Central and North Central Texas as well. Residual smoke from burning activities across portions of northern Mexico are also likely going to be mixed in with the dust and be transported over portions of far West Texas and the Big Bend region. The latest satellite imagery this morning indicates that suspended blowing dust generated the previous day over northern Mexico is lingering over far West Texas and moving across the Permian Basin and Northwest Texas. PM2.5 concentrations may at times spike to the "Very Unhealthy" range or possibly higher mainly for the Permian Basin, the South Plains, the Texas Panhandle, and far West Texas. Meanwhile, scattered prescribed burnings across parts of Texas in addition to agricultural burnings, volcanic emissions, and industrial sources throughout Northern and Southern Mexico are producing residual smoke and other aerosols that will linger over the eastern two-thirds of the state, contributing towards raising PM2.5 levels. The newest model guidance suggests with the lingering dust over far West Texas and the density of the residual smoke over deep South Texas and along the coastal bend of Texas, the daily PM2.5 AQI may reach the middle to upper end of the "Unhealthy" range in parts of the El Paso area; the middle to upper end of the of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock and Midland-Odessa areas; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, and Victoria areas; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, and Tyler-Longview areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Very Unhealthy" range in parts of the El Paso area and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Antonio areas as well.

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Model guidance indicates that the dust generated on Friday from New Mexico, the northern portion of Mexico, and far West Texas will filter across the rest of the eastern half of the state as gusty westerly and northerly winds dominate much of the state. Some portions of far West Texas and the Permian Basin are expected to maintain breezy conditions which may continue to generate blowing dust through these regions as well. Combined with potentially ongoing scattered prescribed burnings across parts of Texas, the residual smoke may filter and expand over areas that are downwind to the east of any burnings. Additionally, light residual smoke and other aerosols from agricultural burnings, volcanic emissions, and industrial sources throughout Northern and Southern Mexico may continue to linger over deep South Texas and along the coastal bend of Texas too. Depending on the density and coverage mainly of the suspended dust but also any light residual smoke, the overall daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower to middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the El Paso area; to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas; to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas; and stay in the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower to middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the El Paso area and the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Antonio areas as well.

Light winds, warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Big Bend, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen Houston area and the "Good" range for most of the Amarillo, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, El Paso, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and Tyler-Longview areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

High-pressure is forecast to begin building over the state following the passing of the strong cold front. Model guidance indicates that the vast majority of the suspended dust from the previous two days will weaken and dissipate. Meanwhile, slightly increased fine particulate background levels associated with light surface winds may periodically raise PM2.5 levels in the more urban portions of the state. The northerly winds will help steer any lingering residual smoke from possibly ongoing agricultural burnings, volcanic emissions, and industrial sources throughout Northern and Southern Mexico southward out of the state and over the Gulf. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Houston area and stay in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Warm temperatures, abundant afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and the "Good" range for most of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Corpus Christi, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Gusty southerly winds will prevail across most of the state that depending on the amount of agricultural burnings, volcanic emissions, and industrial sources persisting throughout Northern and Southern Mexico, light residual smoke and other aerosols may begin to filter back northward over portions of deep South Texas and along the coastal bend of Texas. Additionally, scattered prescribed burnings across parts of Texas may slightly contribute towards elevating PM2.5 levels as well. Depending on the coverage and density of the fine particulate matter, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Tyler-Longview areas and stay in the "Good" range for the majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas. Meanwhile, the gusty afternoon through evening conditions may generate patchy blowing dust across small parts of the Texas Panhandle, Permian Basin, and the South Plains, however the density and duration of any suspended dust are not expected to be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI beyond the "Good" range for the majority of the regions, which includes the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas.

Light daytime winds and an overnight temperature inversion may limit atmospheric mixing and dispersion at the surface across far West Texas that might be enough for urban fine particulate matter to raise the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs to lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas and the "Good" range for most of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, El Paso, Laredo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, with the highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Gusty southerly winds are forecast to persist across the eastern two-thirds of the state. Depending on the amount of agricultural burnings, volcanic emissions, and industrial sources persisting throughout Northern and Southern Mexico in addition to scattered prescribed burnings across parts of Texas, light residual smoke and other aerosols may continue to filter across parts of deep South Texas, the coastal bend of Texas, Southeast, South Central, and North Central Texas, slightly elevating PM2.5 levels. Depending on the coverage and density of the fine particulate matter, the daily PM2.5 AQI may rise to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Victoria areas and stay in the "Good" range for the majority of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, and Waco-Killeen areas. Meanwhile, stronger afternoon through evening conditions are forecast for far West Texas, the Texas Panhandle, Permian Basin, and the South Plains, that will likely generate patchy blowing dust from northern Mexico and eastern New Mexico across these parts of Texas. The density and duration of the suspended dust may be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Unhealthy" range in parts of El Paso area; to the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; and stay in the "Good" range for the majority of the Big Bend area. The daily PM10 AQI may reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy" range in parts of El Paso area as well.