Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and El Paso areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Tyler-Longview area; and the upper end of the "Good" range in most of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Depending on the amount of seasonal burning activities throughout Central/Southern Mexico and Central America, the light density residual smoke is expected to continue to linger over most of the state, however, the majority of the smoke is expected to remain aloft. Light to moderate winds in the eastern two thirds of the state could also increase fine particulate levels in the more urban areas but slight effects could be felt across most areas. Additionally, elevated relative humidity levels may contribute towards fine particulate PM2.5 formation, primarily in more urban areas, across the eastern two-thirds of the state as well. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of far West Texas associated with light winds could raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and El Paso area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo area; and the upper end of the "Good" range in most of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Depending on the amount of seasonal burning activities throughout Central/Southern Mexico and Central America, the light density residual smoke may continue to linger over much of the state, however, the majority of the smoke is expected to remain aloft. Additionally, the elevated relative humidity levels may continue to periodically contribute towards slightly elevating fine particulate PM2.5 levels, primarily in more urban areas, across the eastern two-thirds of the state as well. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, and Houston areas and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Stable atmospheric conditions combined with lingering fine particulates from the previous day in far West Texas could raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, Houston, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in most of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas./p>

With low pressure near the OK-TX border and developing high pressure in the northern Gulf, southerly winds will likely continue transporting moisture into the eastern two thirds of the state with the coverage and density of residual smoke contingent on the burning activity in Mexico and Central America. Light to moderate winds could result in urban haze also contributing toward fine particulate concentrations in some areas with the daily PM2.5 AQI reaching the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Laredo areas and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria areas, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly elevated fine particulate levels will likely persist in far West Texas but increasing chances for precipitations could keep the daily PM2.5 AQI from increasing beyond the upper end of the "Good" range in most of the El Paso area.

Otherwise across the state, moderate to strong winds, hot temperatures, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range in most spots.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, and Tyler-Longview areas; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in most of the Amarillo, Lubbock, and Victoria areas.

A plume of light to moderate Saharan dust is likely to start moving inland from the south/southeastern Texas coast early Monday morning and will gradually spread north and west as the day progresses. Meanwhile, residual smoke advecting from Mexico and light surface winds could also provide sources for fine particulate matter as surface winds remain mostly out of the south. The presence of dust will likely reduce moisture levels but the daily PM2.5 AQI could reach the upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, Laredo, and Victoria areas, the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the "Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Antonio areas, and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, and Tyler-Longview areas.

Lighter winds and very light amounts of residual smoke from northern Mexico could keep the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Otherwise across the state, moderate to strong winds, hot temperatures, and/or lower incoming background levels should help keep air quality in the "Good" range in most spots.

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the lower to middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Tyler-Longview areas, the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, El Paso, Houston, and San Antonio areas; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas.

The plume of Saharan dust could spread as far as the Permian Basin and portions of the Panhandle while model guidance suggests increasing dust densities affecting the eastern two thirds of Texas. With lighter winds persisting and the possibility of light residual smoke also affecting the same regions, fine particulate concentrations could noticeably increase. The daily PM2.5 AQI could reach the middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and Laredo areas, the upper end of the "Moderate" range (or possibly higher) in parts of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, San Antonio, and Victoria areas, the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas, and the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, El Paso, and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Houston, and San Antonio areas as well.